General Motors' decision to keep, kill or sell the brand revered and reviled for its rugged SUVs is less clear-cut than Hummer haters might expect. GM's leaders must evaluate a complex set of economic and emotional factors as they weigh Hummer's fate.
No brand in the auto industry evokes stronger feelings than Hummer. Some people despise it as the embodiment of wasteful arrogance. Others -- not as many, but they're the ones who buy Hummers, so their vote counts more -- love the vehicles' extraordinary capability and styling braggadocio.
Hummer's fate hangs in the balance of those forces, GM's ability to develop more vehicles for the brand, and the legal hailstorm its dealers will call down on GM if their pricey franchises suddenly become valueless.
In the meantime, Hummer soldiers on. The 2009 H3T midsize pickup enters production shortly at GM's Shreveport, La., plant and goes on sale this fall. Eliminating Hummer would endanger the Shreveport plant's future. Hummer's other model, the bigger H2, is produced for GM by AM General in Indiana. AM General developed and builds the Humvee military vehicle that created the brand's mystique.
The H3T is part of GM's longstanding plan to broaden Hummer's lineup and sell the vehicles around the world. With dealers in 37 countries and assembly in South Africa as well as the United States, "the potential for global growth is a huge opportunity. It's one of Hummer's strengths," spokeswoman Joanne Krell said. Developing markets in Asia, Central and Eastern Europe look particularly promising.
"There is global demand for Hummer," said analyst Rebecca Lindland of Global Insight in Lexington, Mass.
The global strategy is contingent on Hummer's ability to develop a multimodel lineup. That's in question as GM accelerates the introduction of small cars and fuel-saving technologies in response to skyrocketing U.S. gas prices.
"In an environment where engineering resources are driven by the need for high-mpg vehicles, can you justify vehicles that don't contribute to that?" asked Jim Hall, managing director of 2953 Analytics, a research and forecasting firm. "Where do you find the money to do a Hummer and do it right?"
Doing Hummer right means that every vehicle it sells must have unparalleled off-road capability. Anything less would gut the brand, making its owners the image-driven poseurs Hummer haters believe them to be.
For that reason, you're not likely to see a gasoline-electric hybrid Hummer -- too much weight and complexity for the backcountry -- but the brand will offer biodiesel-powered versions of all its vehicles by 2010. Biodiesel isn't made from oil and improves fuel economy 30 percent or so versus gasoline-powered versions of the same vehicle.
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