The Marcellus Shale region of Western Pennsylvania and bordering states could contain more than double the amount of recoverable natural gas than initially thought, a Pennsylvania State University professor who is a nationally known authority on the topic said Friday.
Terry Engelder's revised outlook is sure to expand the level of strong interest in what lies beneath the Allegheny Mountain area. Dozens of locally based and out-of-town energy producers are leasing acreage in the region and drilling into land that was an inland sea 350 million to 400 million years ago.
Engelder based his new estimate that up to 392 trillion cubic feet of the fuel could be captured over the next few decades on numbers from Chesapeake Energy Corp., one of the largest stakeholders in the Marcellus area.
"Geologists are still attempting to size this play. We don't know yet how much gas is there, and how much can be recovered," said Engelder, a professor of geologic science who has studied Appalachian shale formations for more than 30 years. He first gave his new numbers this week in Pittsburgh, at a conference on Appalachian gas sponsored by energy information firm Platts.
Oklahoma-based Chesapeake Energy, in a recent meeting with investors, said each square mile in the Marcellus area could contain 30 billion to 150 billion cubic feet of gas. Engelder used an average of that range, 90, to figure the entire 31-million-acre region might hold 4,359 trillion cubic feet of gas.
If 30 percent of that gas were brought out of the ground, as Chesapeake anticipates, he said, that would be 1,307 trillion cubic feet from the entire region. And because another gas producer, Range Resources Corp. of Fort Worth, Texas, points out that not all the Marcellus acreage contains gas, even if just 30 percent of it proves productive, that's 392 trillion cubic feet.
To put it all perspective, that's more than 13 times the 30 trillion cubic feet produced each year across the United States.
Engelder and another geoscientist, Gary Nash of the State University of New York at Fredonia, first stirred the industry early this year with their estimate that 10 percent of a total 516 trillion cubic feet might be recovered.
A 30 percent recovery figure may be more reasonable over time, based on petroleum industry figures, he said, but in any case the new estimate "is a whole heck of a lot larger" than the initial one.
Producers working in the region will provide a more accurate picture over time, he said, adding he's trying to keep his estimates conservative. "The one thing we don't want to do is exaggerate what is there," he said.
Richard Weber, CEO of Atlas Energy Resources LLC, told an audience at an Airport Area Chamber of Commerce event yesterday about the natural gas producers "flooding in" to the Marcellus regions. Atlas of Moon announced yesterday it has drilled 98 wells there.
Equitable Resources Inc. is drilling 20 Marcellus wells this year, and plans 75 next year. "We believe Marcellus easily holds a 10- to 20- year supply of natural gas -- that's for the nation, based on current consumption," said Dave Spigelmyer, spokesman for the North Shore-based company.
Range Resources and a partner opened a refrigerated gas processing plant last week in Chartiers, Washington County, and, "that starts to demonstrate that it's all for real," spokesman Matt Pitzarella said.
Range estimates 15 trillion to 22 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas are in its acreage, he said.
While natural gas has fallen in price since June, "The people we are talking with have not reduced the wells they are looking at," said Bob Garland, Northeast regional sales manager for Superior Well Services of Indiana, Pa.
He attended the Platts event where Engelder spoke. "There was a lot of excitement at the meeting," Garland said.
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